[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Continue to Rebound on December 18, US Fed Governor Waller Says There Is Still Room to Cut Interest Rates

SMM Nickel December 18 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Fed Governor Waller: Monetary policy remains in restrictive territory, with room for further rate cuts. The job market suggests the Fed should continue cutting rates. Interest rates are 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate.

(2) Ministry of Finance data shows that from January to November, national general public budget revenue was 20,051.6 billion yuan, up 0.8% YoY. From January to November, stamp tax revenue was 404.4 billion yuan, up 27% YoY. Among this, securities transaction stamp tax was 185.5 billion yuan, up 70.7% YoY. Calculated figures show that November securities transaction stamp tax increased 2.26% YoY and 24.86% MoM.

Spot Market:

On December 18, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 113,100-120,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 116,600 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Jinchuan #1 refined nickel spot premiums were quoted in the range of 6,500-6,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 6,600 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel spot premiums/discounts were quoted in the range of -100 to 400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) rose slightly during the night session before pulling back, fluctuating in the morning session, closing at 113,470 yuan/mt, up 0.66%.

Current nickel prices are supported at the bottom by integrated MHP costs, leaving limited downside room, but remain capped by high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 112,000-116,000 yuan/mt.